Trump's Capture of Maduro: Turning a Global Superpower into a Lawless Actor

Amid the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning marked its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.