MAGA Supporters for Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: Key Surprises from NYC’s Election

Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

Understand, there was a world where yesterday went somewhat badly for him, in which Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump previously went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That really was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and residents supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

There are areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the disparities we face.