A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
