Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Decline 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The typical count of per-day killings per month in the country has dropped by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new government figures. But, security specialists have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal improved national safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This information was delivered by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily military operations to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in recent times. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of the President's security strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased coordination between government agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that using murder data to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the desire to accurately identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average renders surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.